With the revelation last night/this morning that veteran Democratic Senators Christopher Dodd (CT) and Byron Dorgan (ND) are not seeking re-election this year, the mainstream press is going wild with speculation that these retirements herald doom for the Democrats in this year's midterm elections. This is despite that fact that they are almost a year away and that six, count 'em (Bunning, Brownback, LeMieux, Bond, Gregg, and Voinovich) six, GOP senators are retiring this year as well as several other Republicans in the House. Still, a narrative is forming (and we all know how powerful political narratives can be) and if Obama and the Democrats don't get in front of this soon it could become a self-fulfilling prophesy--the pundits have decided it's 1994 all over again.
For those youngsters out there who may not remember, in November of '94 Congressional approval was at an all-time low and President Clinton's approval numbers were mired in the low 40s after his failure to pass healthcare reform. The result was a Republican landslide that dominated Congress until 2006. But 2010 can be different and in some ways it already is. The public clearly has a lot more good will in the bank for Obama, he remains close to or at 50 percent approval in most public opinion polls--despite roughly six months of consistently bad press. Healthcare reform will likely be passed by the end of this month, albeit a comprised bill, but a political and strategic victory nonetheless. In addition if the Democrats get aggressive on immigration, education and climate change (which are all on the legislative agenda for this year) and continue to rack up victories it'll be easier to contrast themselves with "The Party of No". Naturally there needs to be significant movement on jobs too by the White House and Democrats in Congress, my hunch is that 10 percent number hovers like a shadow over anything the party in power does.
True, losing Dorgan (as John Nichols writes) is a significant blow. He was a strong progressive in an undeniably right-leaning state and it will be exceedingly difficult for any other Democrat to replace him. Chris Dodd, on the other hand, despite having many virtues, was totally tainted by scandal (even Michael Moore went after him in Capitalism: A Love Story) and was likely to lose his re-election campaign. His departure, while perhaps bittersweet, clears the way for Connecticut's popular Democratic attorney general, Richard Blumenthal, to capture his seat. It seems unlikely to me that a progressive state like Connecticut would send a Republican to represent their state alongside nominal Independent Joe Lieberman.
There is no question though that even with some more legislative victories and hopefully some drop in the unemployment rate, Obama and the Democrats will face a tough fight come election time this year. Every midterm the pundits conveniently forget that historically the party in control always gets clobbered in midterms--with the recent exception of 2002, where the GOP's first stab at politicizing a terrorist attack paid off in spades. No wonder President Obama feels forced to behave like Bush on airport security. Still, the Democrats have an impressive weapon in their arsenal that they're not using quite enough. They at least have ideas. No, they may not be as progressive or strong as we'd like but at least they are putting forward a comprehensive jobs bill, a climate change bill, etc. Meanwhile, the Republicans are content to sit on their hands and block anything that has a Democrat or the president's name attached to it.
The polls show that voters believe by a significant margin that Democrats have tried harder to (and I hate to use this overused phrase) "reach across the aisle" and I think if Obama can regain his confidence and footing and starts to really wring a few more wins out of this super-majority as long as he has it, it'll really take the wind out of the GOP's sails. I know, I know, this is a lot of wishful thinking on my part--but I don't think it's time to surrender either, as disappointing as the Democratic-led Congress has been, I would hate to see what could happen to my country with Mitch McConnell and John Boehner at the helm. Not a pretty pictureLINK